Are we under-estimating battery materials demand growth?
In our seminal piece on Chinese metals demand growth when I was at UBS in the early-2000s, we modelled annual Chinese materials demand growth rates of 5%, 10% and 15%. Given that we were coming off a 30-year period of declining intensity of use for materials and prices in real terms, we just couldn’t bring ourselves to use higher growth rates than that because we thought that our clients (investors and corporates) would think we were nuts. As we now know, consumption growth rates for some materials were considerably higher than that, and for an extended period of time. In...