Chinese products cycle turning over?
It looks like the Chinese consumer products output cycle may have peaked in Q1 and is now showing signs of turning over. This could be a major indicator for the state of the global IP cycle. While it’s true that comparators were very easy in the first quarter, it will be important to see whether the rate of growth steadies around the +5-10% area or whether it continues to fall, potentially below zero. We always keep an eye on these series as indicators of the strength of global IP and manufacturing cycles.