Consensus EV sales, materials price forecasts on the up
Following its teardown of a VW ID.3 (see later article) Investment Bank UBS has got seriously bullish on the EV sector, raising its long-term EV sales forecasts, battery materials demand forecasts and price forecasts. It now expects EVs to be 20% of global new car sales in 2025 and 50% by 2030, up from 17% and 40% in 2030 in its November 2020 report. This leads into a 12-30% increase in its 2021E lithium price forecasts, 26-55% increase in 2022E and 12-25% for 2023E. It also raises its graphite price forecasts over that time period. Morgan Stanley also finally capitulated...