Covid impacts…and Covid opportunities
BMR was one of the first to highlight the potential larger than expected impact of the Covid outbreak in the February edition, but we were still way off in terms of our estimate for its potential to disrupt the world outside China. As we have seen in recent days and weeks, the virus is now impacting Developed Countries and will likely impact Developing Countries after that. We already saw China’s IP growth turn negative in Q1/20. It’s likely that G7 IP growth will be negative in Q1 and certain that it will be in Q2/20. So demand for raw materials...