Realities of lithium price environment set in for brokers
Most brokers have taken an axe to lithium price forecasts over the course of late-December and January, with consensus for 2024E SC6 falling to US$1069/t vs US$1900/t in October. One Bulge Bracket US bank came in with the lowest of the lot, forecasting a US$650/t average price for 2024. That implies that at some point, prices will go below that level, and we just can’t see that happening from a marginal cost of production perspective. Broker consensus is suggesting lithium carbonate prices of US$14/kg for 2024E (down from US$21/kg) in October, and US$15/kg for LHM, down from US$23/kg in October.